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PBEC Vietnam Corporate Member: VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity (VOF) Commentary: Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist

There are a few reasons to believe that the impact of Covid-19 on Vietnam’s economic growth in 2020 will be worse than most expect, due to its impact on the country’s tourism sector, and on its manufacturing sector,’ Kokalari said. He pointed out the sectors accounted for roughly 12% and 20% of Vietnam’s GDP respectively and around two fifths of Vietnam’s manufacturing inputs come from China, resulting in heavy disruption. ‘That said, Covid-19 (like the trade war) will ultimately be a powerful catalyst to prompt the movement of factories from China to Vietnam,’ Kokalari added, referencing the ‘stronger psychological impact that supply chain will have on corporate executives’.

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