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PBEC Regional Outlook Brief – Trade for Good Q2 – 2024

Despite the uncertainty about what lies ahead for global trade, there are still reasons for optimism about its resilience and its enduring role as a catalyst for positive change, and these are encapsulated in the current trends that are shaping the landscape.

As 2024 Q2 draws to a close, economies in Asia Pacific are facing what is projected to be a modest slowdown to approximately between 3.5% to 4.2% on average according to the IMF. But this paints over some of the risks within individual economies, such as the deeper property sector, corrections in China and Vietnam which remain important factors in both. This trend reflects macroeconomic factors but also the impact of persistent corruption and un-tethered growth of the last decade in these sectors.

Geopolitical tensions, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and security threats to shipping in the Red Sea, have continued to disrupt global supply chains, and shipping/container prices which get passed on to consumers.

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